Lavender Haze?

What if the states of the election are not where we're looking?

I’ve got a persistent notion in my head that the presidential election is not going to be close. This is not a prediction, mind you—it may well be a matter of wishful thinking. And though it’s my strongest wish that Kamala Harris will win, it’s also my wish that if Donald Trump is going to win he does so decisively, which I’m guessing will pose less of a threat to our political system than razor-thin margins. But I just don’t know.

I just don’t know: I’ve come to be arrested by the unpredictability of a great many things about life, among them elections. For months, even years, we’ve been transfixed by some half-dozen (now seven) so-called battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and now North Carolina. We all know they can go either way. It’s also possible that most or all will go one way rather than the other and deliver a decisive victory.

But what I’m really thinking about are states most of us aren’t thinking about at all. (Here’s a state-by-state listing of the polls.) Democrats have been dreaming about turning Texas blue for years and years, and it’s never happened. Same with Florida. Then there are places like Oregon and Iowa (edging toward a battleground), which are a lot closer than, say, California or Oklahoma. Conversely—while most of my imaginings involve states that will go unexpectedly Democratic—New York has been edging redder and redder. It might not flip but it’s not inconceivable that it could happen soon. In any event, I’d be surprised if there was no November surprise on the national map come November 6.

Unlike some, I’m not especially unhappy about wrinkles in our system like the Electoral College because without it, all the campaigning would ping-pong between Manhattan and L.A., and I don’t mind Georgia or Wisconsin getting the limelight, especially because today’s battleground is tomorrow’s safe state. (New York was the swing state—in the election of 1800.) No voting regime will be perfect and as someone with conservative instincts, I’m very aware of the unintended consequences of intended acts.

Which is not to say that I’m serene about this election. For me, it’s become like a trip to the dentist: you never know what you’re going to be told. As with a trip to the dentist, I’m apprehensive. And hoping that good democratic hygiene will prevail.

Note: I was going to call this post “Purple Haze,” with homage to Jimi Hendrix. But I decided to call it “Lavender Haze” with homage to Taylor Swift—and in acknowledgment of my blue bias.