In 1960, Richard Nixon ran for president and lost by a razor-thin margin to John F. Kennedy. (Actually, as Chris Wallace’s entertaining new book Countdown 1960 indicates, Nixon may well have won that election, not only because of dumped ballots in the Chicago River, which I knew about, but also because of fraud in electoral Texas—it’s conventional wisdom that having Lyndon Johnson on that ticket helped Kennedy, though I didn’t realize it was that way, notwithstanding that LBJ’s nickname of “Landslide Lyndon,” a winking reference to the highly dubious way he won his U.S. Senate race in 1948.) But 1968, Nixon ran for president and won. And then won re-election four years later in a landslide.
In 1976, Ronald Reagan almost snatched the Republican nomination from the incumbent Gerald Ford in a race that went down to the wire at the GOP convention in Kansas City that year. Reagan lost, but four years later he was president. And then won re-election four years later in a landslide.
In 2020, Republican Donald Trump was the incumbent president and lost decisively to Democrat Joe Biden. But four years later, he was renominated and won a decisive electoral college victory. He’s the only presidential politician in American history to win three major-party nominations in a row.
Other Republicans such as Bob Dole, Mitt Romney, John McCain made failed bids for GOP nominations before actually succeeding in gaining them. All three lost general elections, but still managed to retained sufficient loyalty from the Republican electorate to mount serious bids for the White House.
In all of this, the contrast with the Democrats is striking. George McGovern (1972), Walter Mondale (1984), Michael Dukakis (1988), and Al Gore (2000, pictured above in case you didn’t know) all won their party nominations, were defeated in the general election, and were effectively over in national politics. The only exception to the rule was Hillary Clinton, who lost a nomination bid to Barack Obama in 2008, but managed to lead the Democrats in 2016, only to be defeated by Trump. And that was it for her.
None of this bodes well for Kamala Harris, who is reputedly considering another run in 2028 along with entering the race for California governor in 2026. (Nixon, also a Californian ran for governor in 1962 after his defeat to Kennedy. He lost.)
I’m not sure what to make of the fact that Republicans seem to have more tolerance and affection for their candidates than the Democrats do. Maybe it’s their tendency toward conservatism generally. There’s an old saying in American politics that Democrats fall in love, while Republicans fall in line. But that ceased to be true a decade ago, when Trump upended business as usual for the GOP, which has been a fractious, even chaotic, party ever since. Joe Biden’s nomination and victory in 2020 was a matter of political calculation, not the triumph of a movement. The same could be said of Harris, whose refusal to take clear stands has been widely cited as a factor in her defeat.
None of us knows what will happen in the next presidential election. J.D. Vance can plausibly be considered the heir apparent in 2028, but the recent record of vice presidents is not a promising one (the last VP to ascend to the White House was George H.W. Bush in 1988). Given the Democrats have to re-invent themselves and that Donald Trump is, as I think we all can agree, in a category by himself, it may well be that the slates will be literally and figuratively wiped clean. Ever since the time of JFK, Democrats have loved fresh faces, a tradition that includes Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Obama. Now it may be Republicans who are desperate for one. Actually, it may be that virtually all of us are. I know I am.